(Bloomberg) — Iranians vote Friday in a presidential election expected to see a hardline conservative replace the more moderate Hassan Rouhani, complicating efforts to restore a landmark nuclear accord that has major implications for Middle East security and oil markets.
Polling stations open at 7 a.m. local time after a three-week campaign beset by controversy after authorities barred the most popular reformist politicians, who back greater engagement with the U.S. and Europe, and some high-profile conservatives from standing.
The narrow field approved by the Guardian Council is expected to depress turnout to a record low and all but ensure the election of 60-year-old Ebrahim Raisi, an austere cleric and judiciary chief who’s also seen as the favorite to one day succeed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In his campaign, Raisi supported the nuclear-deal diplomacy but downplayed the accord as a “marginal matter.”
The cleric was sanctioned in 2019 by the Trump administration, which cited his role in a deadly crackdown a decade earlier on protesters alleging vote fraud. Human-rights groups say he was a presiding judge in mass executions of political prisoners in 1988, something he has never publicly addressed.
On Thursday, Khamenei urged Iranians to vote in large numbers to ensure the next president receives a “powerful and strong” mandate.
“Our problems will only be solved if the people go to the ballot box and vote for someone who can fix these problems,” he said. “I accept that people have grievances, but I don’t accept that these grievances are a reason not to vote.”
The only reformist contender is Abdolnaser Hemmati, who stepped aside as governor of the Central Bank of Iran in order to run, but he doesn’t have a major political following. Still, if the moderate camp is successful in encouraging more of its supporters to vote, Raisi could be forced into a runoff if he fails to secure 50% of ballots.
Rouhani’s plans to use foreign investment to overhaul the country’s infrastructure and restore its position as a major oil exporter within OPEC were shattered by the unraveling of the nuclear agreement, further dispiriting a middle class that had propelled him to two terms.
What’s at Stake in Iran’s Presidential Election: QuickTake
Rouhani remains in office until August, giving his negotiators a few more weeks to revive the 2015 agreement with world powers that lifted sanctions on Iran’s economy and curtailed its atomic program until then-President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. three years later.
Washington’s exit from the nuclear pact empowered ultraconservatives who were always heavily critical of the nuclear accord and won control of parliament last year. The American withdrawal sent tensions soaring in the Persian Gulf, fueling regional conflicts and prompting Tehran to enrich uranium close to the level needed for a bomb.
The Biden administration came to office seeking to rejoin the nuclear accord and diplomats representing world powers have been camped in Vienna for weeks in search of a deal. Oil markets are closely watching developments of signs of when expanded Iranian crude exports are likely to resume.
Raisi has vowed to prioritize trade with Iran’s neighbors rather than the U.S. and Europe, backed by supportive partners such as China and Russia.
As with previous hardline-led governments keen to bolster support among a pious, working-class base, he has hinted at a populist agenda, promising to build 1 million affordable homes, increase taxes on the wealthy, and improve cash handouts for the poor.
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