Canadian Dollar Outlook
USD/CAD – Indecisive Buyers
On August 15, USD/CAD rallied to 1.3339 however, at this day the pair closed with a Doji candlestick, reflecting the buyer’s indecision to keep pushing the price higher. Consequently, the following day the price tested its weekly low.
On August 14, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pointed higher towards 64 then fell after, and created a lower high, highlighting the buyer’s loss of momentum at this stage.
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USD/CAD DAILY PRICE CHART (March 31, 2017 – AUG 20, 2019) Zoomed Out
USD/CAD DAILY PRICE CHART (July 4 – AUG 20, 2019) Zoomed In
Looking at the daily chart, we notice on Thursday USD/CAD corrected lower creating a lower high at 1.3339. Today, the pair is moving in the trading zone 1.3256 – 1.3357. Knowing that the high end of the zone has not been tested in nearly two months.
Hence, a close above the high end could push USD/CAD towards 1.3459. Nonetheless, the weekly resistance levels underlined on the chart (Zoomed in) should be followed closely.
On the flipside, a close below the low end of the zone could mean more bearishness towards 1.3166 however, the daily support levels underlined on the chart need to be considered.
It’s worth noting also, that if USDCAD breaks and remains below 1.3184 – neckline of a potential Double top pattern. This could press the pair towards the monthly support at 1.3016. The weekly support levels on the chart need to be monitored.
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USD/CAD Four-HOUR PRICE CHART (AUG 05 – AUg 20, 2019)
Looking at the four-hour chart, we notice yesterday USDCAD created a higher low nearby 1.3250. The pair rallied after but has not been able to overcome previous high, reflecting buyer’s hesitation to keep pushing the price higher.
Thus, a break above the August 7 High at 1.3345 could end this hesitation, causing a rally towards 1.3378. Although, the high end of the aforementioned trading zone needs to be monitored. See the chart to know more about the higher resistance levels buyers would encounter in a further bullish scenario.
On the other hand, it’s worth noting the importance of yesterday’s higher low. Therefore, if USDCAD breaks and remains below 1.3250 this could send the price towards 1.3166 however, the daily support levels marked on the chart need to be kept in focus. See the chart to find out more about the lower support levels sellers would face in a further bearish scenario.
Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi
Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi